Mount St. Mary's

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	225.0
Current RPI:	225
Expected SOS:	333
Current SOS:	333
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-9
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	280
Expected OOC SOS:	344

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	225.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	80-59	L	0%
11-13	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	A	88-62	L	0%
11-15	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	102-68	L	0%
11-18	North Florida (218.0)	ASun	N	84-81	W	100%
11-24	Ohio (204.0)	MAC	A	96-77	L	0%
11-27	Morgan St. (327.0)	MEAC	H	63-69	L	0%
12-2	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	80-75	W	100%
12-5	Pittsburgh (217.0)	ACC	A	82-78	L	0%
12-9	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	75-60	L	0%
12-18	American (336.0)	Pat	A	56-59	W	100%
12-22	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	53-66	W	100%
12-29	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	76-57	L	0%
12-31	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	71-57	L	0%
1-4	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	96-80	W	100%
1-6	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	78-51	W	100%
1-11	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	81-75	W	100%
1-13	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	80-81	W	100%
1-18	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	81-73	L	0%
1-20	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	73-72	L	0%
1-25	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	86-80	W	100%
1-27	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	86-72	W	100%
2-1	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	42-67	W	100%
2-3	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	59-56	W	100%
2-8	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	57-71	W	100%
2-10	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	79-77	L	0%
2-15	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	79-80	L	0%
2-17	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	69-74	W	100%
2-22	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	72-53	W	100%
2-24	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	73-62	W	100%
2-28	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	56-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	26.41	26.41	57.81	57.81	4.13	4.13
Robert Morris	NEC	5.94	5.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	4.46	4.46	71.43	71.43	1.91	1.91
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.44	4.44	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.36	4.36	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.36	4.36	61.54	61.54	1.01	1.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.35	4.35	46.67	46.67	-0.29	-0.29
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.33	4.33	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
Bryant	NEC	4.26	4.26	6.90	6.90	-3.67	-3.67
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.26	4.26	32.14	32.14	-1.52	-1.52
American	Pat	1.92	1.92	20.69	20.69	-1.13	-1.13
Lehigh	Pat	1.86	1.86	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.83	1.83	16.13	16.13	-1.24	-1.24
Loyola MD	Pat	1.78	1.78	27.59	27.59	-0.80	-0.80
Notre Dame	ACC	1.78	1.78	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Marquette	BE	1.75	1.75	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Pittsburgh	ACC	1.75	1.75	22.58	22.58	-0.96	-0.96
Georgetown	BE	1.74	1.74	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Ohio	MAC	1.69	1.69	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
North Florida	ASun	1.67	1.67	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Navy	Pat	0.36	0.36	61.29	61.29	0.08	0.08
Hartford	AE	0.32	0.32	58.06	58.06	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.28	0.28	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Army	Pat	0.25	0.25	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.25	0.25	30.00	30.00	-0.10	-0.10
NJIT	ASun	0.25	0.25	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
St. John's	BE	0.24	0.24	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
UMass Lowell	AE	0.24	0.24	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.22	0.22	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Boston University	Pat	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.20	0.20	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
Louisville	ACC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.19	0.19	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.18	0.18	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.16	0.16	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.16	0.16	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Duke	ACC	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
Binghamton	AE	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01